Bones, Bombs and Break Points

We consider the distribution of economic activity within a country in light of three leading theories – increasing returns, random growth, and locational fundamentals. To do so, we examine the distribution of regional population in Japan from the stone age to the modern era. We also consider the Allied bombing of Japanese cities in WWII as a shock to relative city sizes. Our results support a hybrid theory in which locational fundamentals establish the spatial pattern of relative regional densities, but increasing returns may help to determine the degree of spatial differentiation. One implication of these results is that even large temporary shocks to urban areas have no long-run impact on city size. The authors want to especially thank Mary Berry, Wayne Farris, and Hiroshi Kito who helped us enormously in obtaining and understanding the historical demographic data. While their help was instrumental, all remaining errors are the responsibility of the authors. Kazuko Shirono gave us tremendous help with the archival and data construction aspects of the paper. Joshua Greenfield also helped input the bombing data. Weinstein wants to also thank the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science for funding part of this research, and Seiichi Katayama for providing him with research space and access to the Kobe University library.